Taiwan Strait’s Next Step: World Peace or World War III?

Whether it is the Russo-Ukraine War that resurged in 2022 or the Gaza-Israel conflict that broke out just two months ago, military technology and defense have played a significant role in deciding the trajectory of these wars. Similarly, across the Taiwan Strait, a war between Taiwan and China is looming, and military technology and defense would play a decisive role in the interplay of different factors as follows.

Being one of the world’s largest semiconductor exporter, Taiwan occupies a market share of 56.4 percent in the global semiconductor foundry market, making it an indispensable part in the world’s high-tech industry. As technologies advance at a speed the world had never seen before, Taiwan and the strategic location of the Taiwan Strait will only grow in their importance to the world, and the region’s stability is something to be concerned and maintained by the international community. 

Ever since the United States broke its diplomatic relations with Taiwan and gradually decreased its military supplies toward Taiwan in 1979, Taiwan’s national defense had always focused on the goal of maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait. However, tension rose rapidly as China grew stronger economically and as Taiwan experienced a ruling party alternation in the past few years. Currently, Taiwan is at the stage which a renewed defense strategy as a response is required in order to maintain the long-enduring peace.

The Old-Fashioned Way

Traditionally, Taiwan’s national defense strategy was aimed to acquire more heavy weapons that could defend Taiwan and combat China in a direct face-off. For instance, in late 2023, the Yu Shan landing platform dock started its serving in the Taiwan (ROC) Navy. It is equipped with “an M109 assault boat, dual-mounted Stinger missiles, a Humvee, a sniper rifle, and a model of the Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile.” This may sound impressive, but practically speaking, would this costly weapon really make any differences between the gaps of Taiwan’s naval force compared to China’s?

Photo by Taiwan Ships Watchers / Facebook

While Taiwan only has four outdated (serving over 40 years) submarines currently in service, China has about 56, not to mention its warships and carriers that Taiwan has none. Moreover, China’s annual military spending in 2023 was approximately $224.79 billion, which is 16 times more than Taiwan’s budget at $13.06 billion. It is hence safe to say that Taiwan is in no place against China when it comes to military production and advancement due to lack of financial resources.

If Taiwan chooses to continue developing its conventional military defense and aim for technological advancements in heavy weapons and vehicles as a response to the growing tension in the Taiwan Strait, it would have rather limited impacts on the status quo between China and Taiwan. However, developing new technologies and weapons aggressively and offensively like this can further exacerbate the tension between China and Taiwan, as China might see such decisions as a form of provocation. Most importantly, it would favor Taiwan’s military offense but not the defense. Nevertheless, with such a great difference between the two countries’ military power, Taiwan’s technological advancements in weapons would not frighten China or defer it from invading Taiwan in any practical sense.

Porcupine Defense

Different from the traditional military defense as previously mentioned, making the conflict between Taiwan and China an asymmetric warfare would be a newer and more efficient choice compared to conventional warfare.

In this regard, the “porcupine strategy” appears to be the best option for Taiwan’s defense, and it advocates for a total defensive policy by Taiwan, which would ideally be covered with low-cost weapons, such as drones, naval mines, and anti-aircraft/anti-ship weapons. In order to implement the porcupine strategy, advanced technological applications are essential, and this is the niche Taiwan enjoys. In this way, Taiwan could spend less money to produce more efficient military technologies that could minimize its disadvantages caused by the differences in military power and technologies under a full-scale war. This scenario will then allow Taiwan to better defend itself or at least inflict enough damage to intimidate and prevent China from invading.

Modern Warfare, Modern Weapons

Several technologies that can defend Taiwan from China’s massive naval fleet and air squadrons are drones, well-designed air defense system equipped with surface-to-air missiles (SAM), anti-ship missiles, and naval mines. The former two could prevent missiles from hitting its targets and the latter two could stop China’s naval fleet ashore with relatively lower costs, putting less personnel at risks at the same time. Right now, Taiwan is using the I-HAWK SAM system, which could “defend fixed and mobile assets from high speed aircraft,” and its domestically produced Tien Kung-II SAM in Taipei. In fact, the success and importance of a defensive missile system was validated earlier this year in the Gaza-Israel conflict, where Israel’s Iron Dome successfully stopped Palestine’s missile attack.

Photo by Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Another major aspect of modern warfare is the cyber warfare, which “involves the actions by a nation-state or international organization to attack and attempt to damage another nation’s computers or information networks through, for example, computer viruses or denial-of-service attacks.” Right now, Taiwan relies heavily on the Internet and submarine communication cables to communicate with its important outer islands, Kinmen and Matsu, with both islands serving as the first line of defense against China in the Taiwan Strait. If China destroys those submarine cables and sever the Internet connection in the area, Taiwan will lose communication with its frontline of defense, allowing China to easily take over the islands and putting mainland Taiwan directly under China’s threat. Therefore, Taiwan has been putting its focus on low orbit satellite in recent years, as it could ensure Internet connection at every corner in a certain area through its high-density network in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO), which is safe from the enemy’s threat since it is difficult to disrupt.

For example, Foxconn’s self-produced low orbit satellite had successfully entered the LEO on November 12, 2023. Three days later, Taiwan’s largest integrated telecom service provider, Chunhwa Telecom, signed with Eutelsat OneWeb for exclusive agency in developing Taiwan’s low orbit satellite technology, aiming to cover Taiwan with a network of low-orbit satellites that will guarantee communications within its boundary by 2024. As a proof of the importance of connectivity, SpaceX’s Starlink project is a great validation of low orbit satellite’s effectiveness and future in military as it was proved during the Russo-Ukrainian War to be applicable and the U.S. military now enjoys 30-time faster global communication. Either way, secured communication within Taiwan’s military forces could significantly enhance the military strength and make it harder for China to attack Taiwan.

Photo by SpaceX

Future

Under the porcupine strategy, the tension in the Taiwan Strait could possibly decrease as China may view Taiwan as developing new technologies and weapons solely for defensive purposes. Most importantly, compared to the traditional methodology, Taiwan can better protect itself and deal more damage that would make China hesitate when deciding to invade Taiwan with force. Furthermore, the porcupine strategy would also be a more feasible and realistic choice for Taiwan because it turns a smaller amount of budget into an effective defense on a small island. Certainly, there is not a “best” solution to the tension across the Taiwan Strait, but at the end of the day, peace is always the ultimate goal.